Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Per Capita Availability of food grains in India


Per capita Production and Availability:
When resources (especially Land) and technology constraints limit the aggregate food production, its negative impact on food security at the household and individual level can be minimized to some extent by the efforts on curtailing population growth rates within tolerable rates[1]. Another way to feed the ever-growing population is to achieve the higher fertility rates. Table: 3 presents the data of Yield Per hectare of major food grains in the country.
The fertility of wheat has shown considerable growth from 750 kg/hectare in 1953-54 to 1630 kg/hectare in 1980-81 and to 2281 kg/hectare in 1990-91 and 2708 kg/hectare in 2000-01. The yield per hectare of wheat was 2938 kg/hectare in 2010-11.
Food grains production trends according to major crops indicate non-uniform trends. The substantially higher growth rate of above 4 per cent experienced for rice during the 1980s has declined to 1.68 per cent during 1990s. Food grain production has been almost stagnant for more than 10 years and now there is a growing gap between supply and demand of food grains[1].The emerging trends in India’s food grains output can be seen in Figure:1 output has been fluctuating sharply.
The availability of food grains, derived from the accounting identity involving production levels, stock changes and trade balance, can be considered as a good estimate of the aggregate consumption, and in spite of the limitations imposed by the problems in obtaining stock changes. The average daily per capita availability of food grains in 1970s remained slightly at a lower level than in the 1960s, but the 1980s and 1990s witnessed a moderate improvement in the availability level[2]. Remember it also includes the grains spoiled in the godowns of FCI India. Table -4 presents net availability of food grains for various years from 1951 to 2010. It also includes data on availability of rice, wheat, other cereals gram, and pulses.
There is an improvement in the per capita net availability of food grains over the decades but one cannot notice any perceptible upward trend in the net availability. On the contrary, what one notices is the YoY variability in the availability. This may be due to fluctuations in area and productivity. During the 1990s both area and yield levels indicated a reduction in the variability due to increased production and huge stock position with the government. However it should be emphasized that physical access alone will not ensure the food security unless it is matched by economic access i.e. the purchasing power with the poor.
To ensure the economic access of the poor the government of India has come up with a very ambitious plan of providing food at subsidised rates to almost all the population. Government has introduced a National food security Bill in the Parliament on 22 December 2011 to ensure the adequate safety for 400 million poor. Let us now discuss some salient features of the bill.



[1] Badar alam Iqbal and Theo van Der Merwe”Food Crisis in India (A Review Article)”,Asian Journal of Agricultural Economics
[2] P.S.George(1999) op.cit. p 473


[1] P.S.George,” (1999) “Some reflection on Food security in India”, Presidential address delivered at 59th annual Conference of the Indian society of Agricultural Economists ,Vol.54, No. 4, 

Food grains Production Performance in India



Prof. (Dr.)M.K.Ghadoliya

Food grains Production Performance:
It may be recalled that increased availability of food is necessary condition for achieving food security in India. Since dependence on the imported food grains for long is not desirable. Table- 1 reveals that food grains production in India, which was only 50.82 million tons in 1950-51 doubled in 1969-70 to 108.42 million tons because of adoption of HYV seeds and irrigation popularly known as Green Revolution. In 1980-81 the total food grains production was 129.59 m. tons that increased to 176.39 million tons in the year 1990-91. After reaching a record level it declined to 196.81 m. tons in the year 2000-01. The food grains production at present is at comfortable level but any one or two bad monsoon years may change the entire scenario.
Table: 1 Agriculture production-Food grains                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (Million Tons)

Year
Cereals
Pulses
Total
(5+7)
Rice
Wheat
Coarse Cereals
Total (2 to 4)
1952-52
22.90
7.50
19.61
50.01
9.19
59.20
1955-56
27.56
8.76
19.49
55.81
11.04
66.85
1960-61
34.58
11.00
23.74
69.32
12.70
82.02
1965-66
30.59
10.40
21.42
62.41
9.94
72.35
1970-71
42.22
23.83
30.55
96.60
11.82
108.42
1975-76
48.74
28.84
30.41
107.99
13.04
121.03
1980-81
53.63
36.31
29.02
118.96
10.63
129.59
1985-85
63.83
47.05
26.20
137.08
13.36
150.44
1990-91
74.29
55.14
32.70
162.13
14.26
176.39
1995-96
76.98
62.10
29.03
168.11
12.31
180.42
2000-01
84.98
69.68
31.08
185.74
11.07
196.81
2005-06
91.79
69.35
34.06
195.20
13.39
208.59
2010-11
95.32
85.93
42.22
223.47
18.09
241.56
Data for 2010-11 are based on advance estimates
Source: Compiled by the author from the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India

Experts are of the opinion that there is a limit to increasing the food grains production through increase in area under cultivation because the country has already reached a plateau in so far as cultivable land is concerned. The HYV seed which has been the basis of Green Revolution in seventies has now slowed down.  Food grains production increased annually by 3.22 percent during fifties mainly because of the area expansion. Sixties recorded a low annual growth rate of 1.72 percent and again a growth rate of 2.08 per cent was recorded in seventies. The technological advancement pushed up the growth rate during eighties and an annual growth rate of 3.5 per cent in food grains production was witnessed that was above the population growth rate. The growth momentum could not be maintained and during 1990-91to 2010-11 it again fell to only 1.46 per cent which is much less than the population growth rate. 
Table: 2 Annual compound Growth rates of food grains Production
(Base triennium ending 1980-81=100)
(Percent Per annum)
Crop
1950-51 to
1959-60
1960-61 to
1969-70
1970-71 to
1979-80
1980-81 to
1989-90
1990-91 to
1997-98
Rice
3.28
-8.05
1.91
4.29
1.53
wheat
4.51
5.90
4.69
4.24
3.67
Coarse cereals
2.75
1.48
0.74
0.74
-0.49
Total cereals
3.00
2.51
2.37
3.63
1.84
Pulses
2.72
1.35
-0.54
2.78
0.76
Total  food grains      
3.22
1.72
2.08
3.54
1.66

In fact, the growth rate of food grain production during the 1990s and thereafter has been close to the annual population growth rate, which implies a stagnant per capita production level. Further, this growth rate has been achieved with the strategy popularly known as green revolution with the excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides including heavy dependence on ground water irrigation. This is dangerous from the point of view of environment. The strategy adopted in the green revolution period has led to concentration of incremental increases in wheat and rice output and marketed surplus in few states namely Punjab and Haryana. The revolution was not wide spread in area terms as well as in terms of crops. In order to take advantage of the large scale procurement for the government PDS programme the political pressure groups in these states have used the MSP as the remunerative price as there seems to be no correlation between the price declared by Agricultural Costs and Price Commission and procurement prices.[1]
The government under pressure of these  groups and the demand by the regional  political parties have yielded continuously to fulfil the demands for higher and higher prices tor the government purchases  what has been referred as Greed Revolution by the famous agricultural scientist Swaminathan.
M.S. Swaminathan has drawn our attention towards environmental problems associated with the recent phase of agriculture due to excessive and unscientific use of chemical pesticides and fertilizers and ground water. He calls it the exploitative agriculture. This phenomenon of increased use of water and pesticides is unsustainable and is not in the interest of long term food security for the country. The declining water availability for irrigation has serious repercussions on food production, demand, trade, and prices. Given the current trends of our water use and water wastage patterns, a severe crisis can evolve in future. All of us know very well that the biggest user of the water is agriculture sector particularly irrigation, which accounts for nearly 80 per cent of global water consumption. In developing countries, the percentage is even more. So for any policy for food security should also look into this aspect and should improve the irrigation management. Further the age old traditions and methods of water conservation strategies to cope up with the adverse consequences should be popularized for any such contingencies.



[1] Swaminathan M.S.(1996) “Science and Technology for Sustainable food security”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics. Vol.51 No. 1&2 ,pp 60-75