Explain the theory of Demographic Transition.

The theory of demographic transition states the impact of economic development on the population growth of a country.  The earliest systematic discussion on the theory of population growth is provided by Malthus in 1798. He explained that the food grains grow at arithmetic progression whereas population grows at geometric progression so soon there will be huge gap in the requirement of food grains and the availability of food grains. Malthus stated that population growth always exceeds the growth of means of subsistence and warned that the uncontrolled population had to be corrected by nature which would be very painful. Economists however, argued that the population growth is a transitory phenomenon that is explained by the theory of Demographic transition.  According to this theory there are three distinct stages of population growth:

 First Stage: High Birth-Rate and High Death-Rate

          In the first stage of population growth, the birth rate and death rate are high. This keeps population growth as low. The economy during this stage is underdeveloped with low level of income. The high birth-rate occurs due to traditional religious beliefs, agrarian economic structure, wide spread illiteracy, absence of awareness about family techniques, early age of marriage, attitude towards children and family size etc. The large size of family is expected to provide economic advantage as children contribute at an early age and considered as traditional source of security in the old age of parents. The death rate on the other hand is also high mainly due to ill nourished diet, lack of sanitation and medical facilities. The famines and epidemics also caused high death rates. During this stage the population remains low; however the potential for the population rise is very large due to high birth rate.

 Second Stage: Falling Death Rate and High Birth Rate

          At this stage the death rates start falling rapidly but birth rate remains stable. The rapid decline in death rate occurs due to improved economic development that result in the availability of better food, adequate clothing, housing, improved medical and public health facilities, greater awareness about health and hygiene. The birth rate in this stage remains at high levels mainly because of factors such as better education, change in attitude towards family size and increasing level of urbanization take time to show results. In fact, the high growth potential of the first stage is realized in the high actual growth. The high birth rate and falling death rate contributes to the rapid population growth. The second stage is also termed as the stage of “Population Explosion”.

 Third Stage: Low Birth-Rate and Low Death Rate

           During this stage, the economic development process transforms the country from agrarian to industrialized economy accompanied by the fast urbanization. The birth rate witness a fall as problems of urbanization such as housing problem, increased cot of living etc., compel people to follow small family norms. Further, the expansion of education causes attitudinal changes and the advantage of small family is recognized. Since death rate remained quite low and birth rate falls steadily this stage is characterized by slow population growth rate.

 The theory of demographic transition explains the transformation of traditional high birth and death rate economy into low birth and death rate economy.