Discuss the demographic profile of India.

 Demographic Profile of India

 1. Size and Growth rate of Population:

           India, currently the second most populous country in the world, has around 17 percent of world’s population in less than three percent of earth’s land area. India began the 20th century with the population about 238 million and by 2000 it ended up with 1 billion. While the global population has increased threefold during the last century, from 2 billion to 6 billion, India has increased its population nearly five times during the same period. India’s population is expected to exceed that of China before 2030 to become the most populous country in the world. Table1 indicate that the population growth in India has not been uniform. The trends are as follows:

·         Till 1921, the population growth was irregular and slow. The population grew continuously and rapidly afterwards.

·         Since 1951, India is passing through a period of population explosion. The improved economic development process has brought in a sharp decline in death rate. Better healthcare facilities, improved nutritional standards, control over epidemics, etc., have all contributed to sharp decline in death rate while birth rate has not shown a similar corresponding decline.

·         The 1991 census of population showed that the growth rate had witnessed slight decline from 24.66 percent in the decade 1981-91 and further to 21.34 percent in 1991-2001. This decadal growth (i.e. of 21.34 percent) is the sharpest decline in population growth rate witnessed since independence.

Table 1: Population Size and Growth in India (1901-2008)

Census year	Population (000s)	Growth over decade (Percent)
1901	238.397	-
1911	252.09	5.7
1921	251.32	-0.3
1931	278.98	11.0
1941	318.66	14.2
1951	361.08	13.3
1961	439.24	21.6
1971	548.16	24.8
1981	683.33	24.7
1991	846.42	23.9
2001	1,028.74	21.5
2011	1,210.19	17.64
2018	1354.05	-

 Source: Census of India (Various Years) & World Population Data Sheet, 2008

2. Birth Rate and Death Rate:

          India is in the middle of demographic transition. The death rate has declined sharply but birth rate though falling is quite high thus causing a rapid population growth. At present the annual growth rate of India’s population is 1.2 per cent. The analysis of Table 2 showing the birth and death rates since 1951 clearly indicates that there has been some decline in the birth rate. In the same period, the death rate has, however, declined significantly. Improved medical facilities, epidemics control, better education facilities, reduction in poverty, fall in infant mortality rates, maternal mortality rates have caused the fall in the death rates. The fall in birth rate however has been moderate since the socio-economic conditions favor a larger family in India. The fertility rate in India has declined substantially form 5.7 per woman in 60’s to 2.1 according to the National Family Health Survry (NFHS) conducted in 2015-16.

The data indicates that improvement in women’s educational status leads to a reduction in the number of children. In Bihar, the percentage of women who are literate rose from 37% in 2005-06 to 49% in 2015-16 and the fertility rate declined from 4 to 3.4. In Uttar Pradesh, where women’s literacy rate improved from 44.9% to 61% in the decade, the number of children per woman declined more sharply — from 3.8 to 2.7. Even in states such as Kerala and Goa, where fertility was already low, further improvements in women’s literacy has reduced the number of children in a family. In Goa, women’s literacy rose from 83% in 2005-06 to 89% in 2015-16 and fertility fell from 1.8 to 1.7. In Kerala, the literacy rate for women grew from 93% to 97%, bringing down fertility from 1.9 to 1.6. 

                                                                                                                                                                                           Table 2: Crude Birth and Death Rates (1951-2008)

Year	Birth Rate Per 1,000 Persons	Death Rate Per 1,000 Persons
1951	30.9	27.4
1961	40.9	22.8
1971	41.1	18.9
1981	33.9	12.5
1991	29.5	9.8
2001	25.8	8.5
2016	19.3	8

 Source: Census of India (Various Years) & World Population Data Sheet, 2008

3. Age Composition of Population

          Indian age distribution continues to be ‘young’ with children under age 15 and working group together forming 73 percent (i.e. more than two-third) of the total population in 2001 (Table3).The young population virtually guarantees further growth, as these young people produce their own families. But at the same time India has a big working group population (around 63 percent). Economist refers this as ‘demographic dividend’. As outside of this age group very few people work, it is reasonable to think of the remainder, as the "dependent population". A nation's "dependency ratio" is the ratio of the dependent population to the working-age population. In the case of India this turns out to be 0.6. It is predicted that this ratio will witness a sharp decline. Since fertility is falling, the bulge of young people (population in the age group of 0-14 years) would move into the working-age category. And, since, at that time, the relative number of children will be small (thanks to the lowered fertility), India's dependency ratio would be lower. It is expected that, in the year 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37 for China and 48 for Japan; and, by 2030, India's dependency ratio should be just over 0.4. The direct benefit of demographic dividend is that this would lead to a rise in the population engaged in productive activity. A more indirect but vital benefit for the economy is the increase in savings as decline in the nation's dependency ratio is usually associated with a rise in the average savings rate.

Table 3: Structure of India’s Population by Age Groups (1961-2008)

	Age Group
Year	0-14	15-60	60 & above
1961	41.0	53.3	5.7
1971	41.4	53.4	5.2
1981	39.7	54.1	6.2
1991	36.5	57.1	6.4
2001	35.6	58.1	6.3
2011	28.8	62.8	5.7

 Source: Census of India & World Population Data Sheet

4. Sex Composition of Population

           One of the most striking features of India’s population profile is its abnormally low ratio of females to males. This ratio has been consistently less than one. Further, the ratio has registered a significant decline from 0.946 in 1951 to 0.933 in 2001 (Table 4).The basic reason for adverse sex-ratio is that there is strong preference for sons in India due to socio-economic reasons such as sons are regarded as a source of future income and old age security, certain ritualistic rites on certain occasions that are expected to be performed by sons etc. The other explanation is the abortion of female fetuses. While abortion has been legal in India since 1972, sex-selective abortion has been illegal since 1994. However, the government has not effectively enforced the ban. The practice has increased, especially in wealthier states, such as Haryana and Punjab.

5. Qualitative Aspects of Demography in India:

          The quality of population can be judged from the level of literacy and life expectancy of people in the country. Literacy  is an indispensable means for effective social and economic participation, contributing to human development and poverty reduction.Notwithstanding the revised definition during census  of literacy the literacy rate has improved substantially from 28.3 percent in 1961 to 68 percent in 2008. Since 1961, the life expectancy at birth has increased from 41.2 years to 65 years in 2008 mainly due to much better access to medicine and healthcare.

Table 4: Vital Statistics in India

Year	Life Expectancy at Birth (in years)	Literacy Rates (in percent)	Total Fertility Rate (per woman)	Infant Mortality Rate	Sex Ratio
1961	41.2	28.3	5.8	146	941
1971	46.4	34.5	5.7	129	930
1981	54	41.4	4.5	110	934
1991	61	52.2	3.6	80	927
2001	63	65.4	3.1	58.5	933
2017	68.8	74	2.1	34	943

na:  Not Available. Source: Census of India & World Population Data Sheet, 2008

6. Population Density:

           Density of population is expressed as number of persons per unit of area. It helps in getting a better understanding of the spatial distribution of population in relation to land. The density of population in India (2001) is 313 persons per sq km and ranks third among the most densely populated countries of Asia which has increased to 350 in 2008 (World Population Data Sheet, 2008). At present the Population density as per NITI Aayog Data is 382.  There has been a steady increase of about 265 persons per sq km over the  years with the density of population of 117 persons/ sq km in 1951. 

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